La legalizzazione della cannabis in vari Stati degli Usa ha messo le ali ai titoli delle società che si occupano di coltivarla e venderla.
In pochi mesi molte hanno registrato rialzi di circa il 1.000%! La salita, però, durerà? E quali sono i guadagni effettivi?
A questa domanda ha provato a rispondere Altroconsumo Finanza passando al setaccio 10 azioni legate alla cannabis.
La CannaVest è una di quelle che ha messo su il 1.000% (953% per la precisione) in poco più di nove mesi – il 28 maggio 2013 lo Stato del Colorado negli Usa ha legalizzato per primo l’uso della cannabis.
Peccato che il rialzo si basi sul nulla, o quasi: la società ancora non genera utili e il suo valore contabile (quanto resta se si incassano tutti i crediti e si pagano tutti i debiti ai valori iscritti in bilancio) è negativo (situazione da fallimento se la società non comincia a macinare utili presto).
Stesso discorso per la Advanced Cannabis Solutions, le cui azioni hanno avuto un rialzo superiore al 2.000%.
Nel terzo trimestre 2013 (ultimo dato disponibile) ha fatto solo 455 dollari di ricavi e ben 472.000 dollari di perdita: un altro trimestre così e anche il suo valore contabile va in rosso.
La società fino all’inizio del 2013 si occupava di altro (servizi di mappatura geologica per le società petrolifere), poi ha deciso di reinventarsi nel settore della cannabis.
Discorsi analoghi si possono fare per tutti gli altri titoli considerati dagli analisti.
Se a livello di conti c’è una situazione fallimentare perché le azioni salgono?
Il motivo è lo stesso per cui salivano le azioni delle società internet alla fine del 1999: è la moda del momento.
Per il mercato della cannabis, che a livello federale negli Usa è comunque ancora bandita, vengono prospettate mirabolanti prospettive e quindi basta la notizia di un accordo di vendita per mettere le ali ai titoli.
Il problema poi è che tutte le azioni americane del settore sono quotate su mercati non regolamentati (OTC), dove gli scambi sono ridotti e bastano poche migliaia di dollari per “manovrare” i prezzi.
Manovre orchestrate dai grandi fondi di investimento.
Per esempio le azioni le MedBox dal 26 dicembre al 7 gennaio sono passate da 10,21 dollari a 73,9 dollari, salvo poi nei due giorni dopo scendere a 34 dollari (54%!). E il tutto in assenza di vere notizie…
Le uniche azioni su cui azzardare una scommessa secondo gli analisti di Altroconsumo Finanza sono, casualmente, quelle della GW Pharmaceuticals (347 pence; Isin GB0030544687), quotate a Londra, l’unica società che possiede la licenza per la coltivazione di cannabis nel Regno Unito e partner della più famosa (in negativo) BAYER e produttrice del famoso farmaco SATIVEX.
La società ha un peso e una sostanza nettamente diversi dalle altre analizzate, proprio grazie agli accordi statali raggiunti: i ricavi trimestrali sono il triplo di quelli complessivi annuali registrati dalla più grande delle altre società Usa.
Inoltre ha appunto già ottenuto l’autorizzazione all’utilizzo del suo Sativex, a base di cannabis, per la cura di alcuni sintomi spastici legati alla sclerosi multipla in 25 Paesi (Francia e Svizzera tra gli ultimi). Ora sta aspettando diversi via libera (il processo è lungo) da parte dell’autorità sanitaria americana: se il responso fosse positivo, allora il titolo potrebbe addirittura impennarsi.
Resta sempre una eventualità: non ci sono tempistiche previste per l’approvazione e se il responso fosse negativo l’investimento potrebbe andare letteralmente in fumo. Le azioni di società simili, bocciate dall’autorità americana, hanno perso anche l’80% in un solo giorno!
Appare evidente come dietro al Boom economico Usa siano presenti, sotto tutti i punti di vista, speculazioni e manovre organizzate per spostare grandi fondi di investimento, favorendo aziende economicamente instabili (che prima si dedicavano a tutt’altro) e multinazionali del farmaco che si arricchiscono appropriandosi del mercato mondiale sotto regime di monopolio autorizzativo, probabilmente concesso a loro da accordi privati con gli Stati.
Fonte: Redazione.Finanza
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