Relazione: i volumi di birra in declino nei mercati in cui la cannabis è legale a livello ricreativo
La legalizzazione della marijuana nei tre stati degli Stati Uniti ha rallentato le vendite della birra, come riportato dalla Cowen and Company .
In Colorado , Oregon e Washington , dove è stato legalizzato l’uso ricreativo della cannabis, il business della birra è sceso, secondo Vivien Azer , amministratore delegato e analista specializzato nei settori delle bevande, tabacco e cannabis della Cowen, Società di ricerca.
Azer ha analizzato gli ultimi dati di Nielsen nei tre stati e ha scoperto che “l’entità del calo dei consumi è aumentata in modo significativo,” con volumi di birra che sono scesi più del due per cento finora anche nel mercato globale della birra americana.
“Mentre le vendite al dettaglio di marijuana sono state aperte in questi mercati in date differenti, con i tre stati ora completamente sviluppati dopo l’implementazione di una infrastruttura di vendita al dettaglio, la sottoperformance della birra in questi mercati è peggiorata durante il 2016, “ ha scritto Azer.
“Questo fatto forse non è sorprendente, dato che i dati del governo degli Stati Uniti per gli stati di CO, WA, mostrano un costante aumento dell’incidenza di cannabis tra i giovani di età compresa 18-25, ha aggiunto,” insieme ad una minore incidenza di alcol.
Il più grande calo è sui produttori di birra normale, i volumi di birra a buon mercato di queste aziende sono in calo del 2,4 per cento ed i volumi sul mercato interno del premio (Bud Luce, Coors Light, ecc) sono scesi del 4,4 per cento, scrive Azer.
Cowen si aspetta di vedere un ” volume di pressione costante” su Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD ) e MillerCoors (TAP) . Pur essendo “il più grande trascinatore” del premio economia nelle categorie nazionali, MillerCoors ha ricevuto un rating di “outperform (media di mercato)”, perché Cowen “ha incoraggiato la società ad abbassare i costi come compensazione “ ha scritto Azer.
Nel frattempo, la crescita della birra artigianale ha anche rallentato nei tre mercati analizzati da Cowen.
In Colorado è “in declino”, mentre Oregon e Washington stanno ancora vedendo una certa crescita.
Denver è sotto grande pressione, ha detto, notando che i volumi totali di birra in quel mercato sono diminuiti del 6,4 per cento finora quest’anno ed i volumi di birra artigianale sono diminuiti del cinque per cento.
E’ importante notare che in tutti e tre gli stati il rallentamento del volume di birra artigianale è “compatibile” con le tendenze in tutto il paese, afferma Azer, notando che i mercati in cui la cannabis è legale sono inferiori al previsto di tutti i mercati della birra artigianale degli Stati Uniti in circa 950 punti base.
Nel frattempo le importazioni sembrano essere “immuni” alle pressioni della marijuana legale, anche se i volumi nei tre stati occidentali ancora sono in calo “in modo significativo” rispetto alla crescita a livello nazionale.
Il punto di forza della sua attività di importazione del Messico, Constellation Brands (STZ) è ancora “top pick” per Cowen nelle bevande alcoliche.
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